On Sunday, September 15, 2024, the Ministry of Economy and Finance announced that Morocco’s economy is expected to grow by 4.6% in 2025. This projected growth is attributed primarily to a significant recovery in agricultural value, assuming an average farming season. Meanwhile, the non-agricultural sector is forecasted to maintain a similar growth rate to that of 2024.

Three Years Budget Execution and Macroeconomic Framework Report

In its “Budget Execution and Macroeconomic Framework Report for Three Years,” the Ministry predicts a strong performance in the secondary and tertiary sectors, with growth rates of 2.9% and 4.1%, respectively, for 2025. On the demand side, growth will be driven mainly by exports, expected to contribute 3 percentage points. However, the growth of imports will have a negative impact, reducing GDP growth by 3.8 points, resulting in a net external trade contribution of -0.8 percentage points.

The Ministry also foresees significant contributions to growth from final consumption, expected to add 3.9 percentage points, largely driven by household spending contributing 2.8 percentage points. Public administration consumption is projected to contribute 1.1 percentage points.

Investment is expected to add 0.8 percentage points to growth. Starting in 2025, a slight slowdown in growth is anticipated, signaling a gradual return to long-term trends.

The Ministry’s projections are based on various assumptions regarding the national and international environment. Internationally, assumptions include external demand for Morocco growing by 3.2% on average, Brent crude oil priced at $80 per barrel, and exchange rates of 1.085 euros to the dollar, 10.77 euros to the dirham, and 9.8 dollars to the dirham in 2025.

Domestically, a significant agricultural season with 70 million quintals is expected, leading to an 11% increase in agricultural value. Non-agricultural sectors are expected to continue expanding at a rate of 3.7% in 2025.

External demand for Morocco is expected to grow by 3.2% in 2025, after a slowdown in 2022 (2.2%) and a contraction in 2023 (-1%). Exports are forecasted to grow by 7.1% in 2025, while imports are expected to grow by 6.8% after an 8% rise in 2024, according to the Ministry’s report on “Budget Execution and Macroeconomic Framework for Three Years.”